Review - The Signal and Noise
The signal and the noise pdf
The book includes case studies from baseball, elections, climate change, the financial crash , poker, and weather forecasting. It dropped to No. The Signal and the Noise print edition was named Amazon's No. Arte e scienza della previsione, appeared in October It was published in Japanese in November A Polish edition was scheduled for publication in hardcover in by Helion : Sygnal i szum: Sztuka prognozowania w erze technologii.
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Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share.